Подлинное место】 Оружие и оборудование. Прогноз спроса на запасные части.
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Глава 1 Обзор·················································································· 1
1.1 Основная концепция··········································································· 1
1.2 Классификация запасных частей··········································································· 3
1.2.1.···················································· 3
1.2.2 Низкие запасные части.································································ 4
1.2.3 Определение и определение низких запасных частей на основе нечеткого членства························· 4
1.3 Анализ факторов, влияющих на спрос на запасные части······················································· 10
1.3.1 Анализ присущих влиятельных факторов спроса на запасные части········································· 11
1.3.2 Анализ внешних влиятельных факторов спроса на запасные части········································· 12
1.3.3 Количественная оценка и стандартизация влияющих факторов······································ 16
1.3.4 Определение основных влиятельных факторов, основанных на снижении грубых атрибутов······················· 20
1.4 Иерархический анализ требований к запасным частям·························································· 22
1.4.1 Анализ требований уровня запасных частей····················································· 22
1.4.2 Анализ требований уровня системы оборудования··············································· 23
1.4.3 Анализ потребностей организации обслуживания и гарантии··············································· 23
1.5 Анализ характеристик требований запасных частей····························································· 23
1.5.1 Требования к запасным частям··························································· 23
1.5.2 Характеристики часто потребляемых требований к запасным частям·················································· 24
1.5.3 Особенности низких требований к запасным частям·················································· 25
Глава 2 Основы ОРУЖИЯ И ОБОРУДОВАНИЯ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ Спроса и оптимизация спроса на запасные части и конфигурацию··································· 26
2.1 Анализ режима потребления запасных частей····························································· 26
2.2 Основные принципы прогноза спроса на запасные части···················································· 27
2.3 Общие процедуры для прогнозирования спроса на запасные части···················································· 29
2.4 Методы прогнозирования спроса на запасные части·························································· 31
2.4.1 Метод прогноза качественных запасных частей.··············································· 31
2.4.2 Метод прогноза спроса на запасные части.··············································· 32
2.4.3 Сложность модели и выбор модели··············································· 34
Глава 3 Методы определения разнообразия оружия и запасных частей оборудования·················································· 36
3.1 Обзор··············································································· 36
3.2 Методы определения разнообразия запасных частей оружия и оборудования на основе аналогичного метода анализа·························· 42
3.2.1 Введение в метод анализа сходства························································ 42
3.2.2 Пример анализа································································· 44
3.3 Метод определения сортов запасных частей на основе комплексной оценки нечеткой иерархии····························· 46
3.3.1 Введение в метод комплексного суждения нечеткой иерархии············································ 46
3.3.2 Модельное учреждение································································· 47
3.3.3 Пример анализа································································· 50
3.4 Метод определения сортов запасных частей на основе теории D-S и нечеткой комплексной оценки··················· 52
3.4.1 Модельное учреждение································································· 52
3.4.2 Шаги реализации································································· 54
3.4.3 Анализ выборки································································· 57
3.5 Метод определения разнообразия запасных частей оружия и оборудования на основе серого метода оценки·························· 61
3.5.1 Создание системы индекса оценки·················································· 61
3.5.2 Создание модели оценки························································ 63
3.5.3 Пример анализа································································· 65
Глава 4 Методы прогнозирования спроса на оружие и запасные части оборудования на основе распределения жизни и симуляции жизни···················· 69
4.1 Метод прогнозирования спроса на оружие и запасные части оборудования в зависимости от распределения жизни····························· 69
4.1.1 Модельные предположения······························································ 70
4.1.2 Модельное создание······························································ 70
4.1.3 Анализ выборки································································· 74
4.2 Методы прогнозирования спроса на запасные части на основе моделирования Монте -Карло·································· 77
4.2.1 Модельные предположения······························································ 78
4.2.2 Определение параметров································································· 78
4.2.3 Метод Монте -Карло··························································· 79
4.2.4 Создание модели моделирования························································ 79
4.2.5 Анализ случая································································· 81
4.3 Методы прогнозирования спроса на запасные части на основе моделирования Маркова и Монте -Карло···················· 82
4.3.1 Модель прогнозирования Маркова····················································· 82
4.3.2 Анализ Марковского потребления запасных частей········
Эта книга посвящена основным концепциям запасных частей оружия и оборудования, факторах, влияющих на спрос, процедурах прогнозирования спроса и методах прогнозирования спроса, обычно используемых в принятии решений оружием и запасными частями оборудования, в основном включая запасные части на основе аналогичного метода анализа,, Метод нечеткого комплексного суждения и метод определения разнообразия серого, метод прогнозирования спроса на запасные части, основанный на моделировании, временных рядах, серой модели, векторной машине поддержки, анализе неисправностей и комбинированной модели.